WOMEN RULE — Excited for POLITICO’s 5th annual “Women Rule” summit today in DC where I’ll be hosting a panel at 3:55 p.m. with S&P Chief U.S. economist Beth Ann Bovino, Rolls-Royce North America CEO Marion Blakey and SoulCycle CEO Melanie Whalen. We’ll be talking about how the U.S. economy could be in much better shape with more women in top executive positions and in the workforce more broadly.
A couple of factoids per POLITICO’s Luiza Savage: There are 32 women CEOs of Fortune 500 companies — that’s a historic record but only 6.2 percent; There are fewer large companies run by women than there are by men named John.
FIRST LOOK: A new report out Tuesday from Beth Ann and Jason Gold on women and U.S. GDP finds: “[A] dual-pronged effort of increasing entry and retention of more women to the American workforce, particularly those professions traditionally filled by men, represents a substantial opportunity for growth of the world’s principal economy, with the potential to add 5%-10% to nominal GDP in just a few decades.
“If women entered, and stayed, in the workforce at a pace in line with, say, Norway, the U.S. economy would be $1.6 trillion larger than it is today, according to a scenario analysis conducted by S&P Global economists.”
Event begins at 8:00 a.m. Featured speakers include: actress Kate Bosworth, “Me Too” movement founder Tarana Burke, Transportation Sec. Elaine Chao, Kellyanne Conway, Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) and more. Livestream: here.
FREEDOM CAUCUS NEARLY TOPPLES TAX VOTE — POLITICO’s Bernie Becker, Sarah Ferris, and Colin Wilhelm: “House conservatives threatened to derail a key tax vote on Monday in an attempt to win more influence over the GOP's spending strategy, just four days before the deadline to fund the government. In a dramatic political stunt, more than a dozen members of the House Freedom Caucus withheld their support for a crucial procedural vote on the GOP’s tax bill, threatening an embarrassing blow to GOP leadership.
“The conservatives eventually relented, approving what had been thought to be a formality — a motion to appoint negotiators to hammer out a final tax bill with the Senate. But the frenzy on the House floor underscored the divisions within the GOP over a spending strategy this month, and that the Republicans’ march toward overhauling the tax code — which has proceeded with relatively little drama so far — could get caught up in the process.”
HOUSE CONFERENCE MEMBERS — After the Freedom Caucus stood down on Monday, Ryan ended up naming nine members to the conference committee, headlined by Ways and Means Chairman Kevin Brady (R-Texas). Reps. Devin Nunes (R-Calif.), Peter Roskam (R-Ill.), Diane Black (R-Tenn.), Kristi Noem (R-S.D.), Rob Bishop (R-Utah), Don Young (R-Alaska), Greg Walden (R-Ore.) and John Shimkus (R-Ill.) were also named as conferees.” Read more.
FIRST LOOK II: TRUMP MENTIONED LESS ON EARNINGS CALLS — Per report out this a.m. from Hamilton Place Strategies on Q4' 16 to Q3 '17 earnings call transcripts: “The number of earnings calls mentioning President Trump declined 81 percent between January and late November … The count of calls mentioning tax reform have increased 137 percent since last quarter. …
“Mentions of company culture — inclusive of corporate social responsibility, diversity, and harassment — have increased 32 percent year-over-year in 2017 … Amazon was mentioned on almost eight percent of all earnings calls so far in 2017, outstripping Google in second place with four percent”
NEW FROM TPC — The Urban Institute/Brookings Tax Policy Center in its latest analysis of the Senate bill: “We find the bill would reduce taxes on average for all income groups in both 2019 and 2025. In general, higher income households receive larger average tax cuts as a percentage of after-tax income, with the largest cuts as a share of income going to taxpayers in the 95th to 99th percentiles of the income distribution.
“On average in 2027, taxes would change little for lower- and middle-income groups and decrease for higher-income groups. Compared to current law, 7 percent of taxpayers would pay more tax in 2019, 10 percent in 2025, and 48 percent in 2027.” Read more.
BONKERS QUOTE OF THE DAY — This time goes to House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi on the tax bill: “It is the end of the world. … This is Armageddon.”
SAY WHAT YOU want about the merits of this tax bill. It’s got issues on debt impact, middle class tax hikes and the big bet on corporate rate cuts. But the end of the world it is not. Saying it is just makes one sound ridiculous.
GOOD TUESDAY MORNING — Greetings from DC! Hope to see some of you at “Women Rule.” Email me on email@example.com and follow me on Twitter @morningmoneyben. Email Aubree Eliza Weaver on firstname.lastname@example.org and follow her on Twitter @AubreeEWeaver.
THIS MORNING ON POLITICO PRO FINANCIAL SERVICES -- Victoria Guida on Acting CFPB Director Mick Mulvaney’s comments that he has no plans to fire Leandra English, the agency’s deputy director who is suing him. To get Morning Money every day before 6 a.m., please contact Pro Services at (703) 341-4600 email@example.com.
DRIVING THE DAY — President Trump lunches with members of the Senate GOP at the White House … At 1:45 p.m., Trump “leads a discussion with American business owners and their families” … Senate Banking at 10:00 a.m. marks up the "Economic Growth, Regulatory Relief and Consumer Protection Act" and votes on the nomination of Jerome Powell to be Fed chair … ISM Non-manufacturing at 10:00 a.m. expected to dip to 59.0 from 60.1 …
HEARING PREP — Compass Point’s Isaac Boltansky on the Senate Banking reg relief bill: “We expect the following during the mark-up: (1) an intent focus on the mechanics of the bank stress test changes; (2) a handful of peripheral amendments … (3) a series of messaging amendments with no path to inclusion; and (4) questions relating to the $10B threshold vis-a-vis the QM safe harbor and bank regulatory offramp.
“Securing floor time in the Senate is an unknown variable given ongoing tax reform efforts and uncertainty regarding Sen. Schumer's procedural preference, but we believe S.2155 could clear the Senate in January or February.”
GET SMART FAST — BI’s Josh Barro with a good read on exactly how the tax bill will impact folks: “In the near term, the bill will give most Americans a tax cut. It's also likely to boost the economy at least a little bit over the next couple of years — though its positive economic effects will fade over time, and may even turn negative by the end of the decade, depending on which analysis you believe. …
“The first sign of the tax changes should show up in workers' paychecks in January, when employers adjust tax withholding to reflect lower (or, in the case of an unfortunate few, higher) tax liability.” Read more.
DAGGER AIMED AT NEW YORK — NYT’s Ben Casselman and Patrick McGeehan: “The tax bill approved by the Senate is many things, offering a huge tax cut for corporations, lower rates for the wealthy, and a big victory for Republicans and the White House. It is also an economic dagger aimed at high-tax, high-cost and generally Democratic-leaning areas — most notably New York City and its neighbors.
“The bill, if enacted into law, could send home prices tumbling 10 percent or more in parts of the New York area, according to one economic analysis. It could increase the regional tax burden, complicating companies’ efforts to attract skilled workers. It could make it harder for state and local governments to pay for upgrades to the transit system and other infrastructure” Read more.
COAL CEO SLAMS TAX BILL — CNBC’s Michelle Fox: “The Senate's tax overhaul bill is a ‘huge tax increase’ on certain businesses, said Robert Murray, chairman and CEO of coal giant Murray Energy. Murray, who has been a big supporter of … Trump, told CNBC he's specifically upset about the decisions to keep the alternative minimum tax and to take away the deduction for net interest expense as a cost of business.
“He said the Senate legislation will raise Murray Energy's taxes by $60 million a year, ‘notwithstanding the other so-called benefits the Senate has proposed.’ ‘This means that very capital-intensive, highly leveraged employers, like coal-mining companies, will be forced out of business, with tragic consequences for our families and for many regions of our country,’ Murray said” Read more.
PAID LEAVE INCENTIVE LIKELY TO STAY — Bloomberg Law’s Tyrone Richardson: “A measure that would offer tax incentives for companies to provide paid leave for employees is predicted to remain intact as House and Senate lawmakers start negotiating a compromise to the tax reform bill this week.” Read more.
RYAN THOUGHT ABOUT DUMPING FRELINGHUYSEN — POLITICO’s Rachael Bade and John Bresnahan: “Speaker Paul Ryan and his leadership team discussed replacing House Appropriations Chairman Rodney Frelinghuysen after he bucked the party and voted against the GOP tax bill, multiple sources told POLITICO.
Ryan, House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) and Majority Whip Steve Scalise (R-La.) considered calling up the GOP steering committee charged with selecting chairmen to force a roll call on whether Frelinghuysen should maintain his position.
“Scalise, three sources said, pushed hard for the move and was livid that the New Jersey Republican opposed the legislation that leaders believe is vital to maintaining their majority. … Spokespeople for Ryan's office and the Appropriations Committee declined to comment.” Read more.
CBOE, CME POISED FOR BITCOIN BATTLE — FT’s Phillip Stafford: “Chicago’s two largest derivatives exchanges are going head to head in coming weeks to become the U.S. market of choice for bitcoin futures trading.
“Cboe Global Markets said on Monday it would begin trading its bitcoin futures contracts, known as XBT futures, next week, on December 11, offering free trading for the rest of the month to help spur transactions. That will steal a march on its rival, CME Group, the world’s largest futures exchange, which will launch its futures contracts the following Monday. Read more.
And hedge funds are getting ready — Bloomberg’s Rob Urban and Sonali Basak: “The planned introduction of bitcoin futures contracts at CME Group Inc., Cboe Global Markets Inc. and Nasdaq Inc. will make it much easier to bet on a decline.
“Hedge funds, which have largely stayed on the sidelines, are waiting for the Chicago Mercantile Exchange’s futures market to open for a fresh opportunity to bet against the cryptocurrency, according to more than a half dozen people trading the assets. Read more.
SEC TARGETS INITIAL COIN OFFERING ‘SCAM’ — WSJ’s Paul Vigna: “The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on Monday announced its first-ever enforcement action by its new cyber unit against an initial coin offering, alleging a Canadian company violated U.S. securities laws in raising $15 million through this new, red-hot area of finance.
“Charges against the company, described by the agency as a ‘scam’ run by a ‘recidivist Canadian securities law violator,’ were brought by the unit as it looks to crack down on potential abuse in the cryptocurrency arena.” Read more.
SEC TO PROBE IF BANKS HELPED HEDGE FUNDS INFLATE RETURNS— Bloomberg’s Matt Robinson: “Wall Street banks are known to fiercely compete for hedge-fund clients because of the lucrative trading profits they provide. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is now investigating whether some banks crossed the line to win business by offering hedge funds bogus price quotes on hard-to-value bonds, said two people familiar with the matter. The SEC’s concern: As a reward for helping hedge funds make money — by submitting quotes at requested levels — banks got trades steered their way.”
MORGAN STANLEY LAUNCHES ‘ROBO’ SERVICE — WSJ’s Lisa Beilfuss: “Morgan Stanley has launched an automated-advisory service, the latest wealth-management firm to expand digital offerings in a bid for younger investors’ assets. The New York brokerage firm said its Access Investing ‘robo’ service is available starting Dec. 4 to clients with at least $5,000 to invest. The service will charge 0.35 percent of assets annually. Fees exclude those levied by fund managers. …
“Executives said Morgan Stanley’s robo launch is meant to attract a new generation of clients, many of them the children of existing customers positioned to inherit significant wealth. ‘Access Investing is an opportunity for financial advisers to grow their book of business by making connections early,’ said Naureen Hassan, the firm’s chief digital officer.” Read more.
NEST EGGS HAVE NEVER BEEN BIGGER — Bloomberg’s Jordan Yadoo: “As U.S. stocks continue hitting new highs, President Donald Trump is encouraging Americans to check out their retirement accounts. ‘Look at your 401-k’s since Election,’ the president tweeted Monday morning. ‘Highest Stock Market EVER! Jobs are roaring back!’ Indeed, equity market gains have pushed average IRA and 401(k) balances to record levels. Unfortunately, there’s nothing to see for about half of American households that have no such retirement-savings vehicles.
“Fidelity Investments, the nation’s largest administrator of retirement plans, said the average 401(k) balance in its accounts hit a record $99,900 in the third quarter while the average IRA rose to an all-time high of $103,500. Balances increased 10 percent from the same period a year ago, according to the Boston-based investment firm.”